Home sales in Northern Virginia declined 9.8% in November from the same month in 2022, but were up 12.5% from October, according to new data from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors.
The year-over-year decline continued a trend that has been ongoing since the middle of 2022 although it was not as much as in some prior months. And prices rose 5.7% from November 2022, NVAR reported.
“November data show that the market continues to adjust in this post-COVID time, and we haven’t quite found a new normal. We do know that housing inventory remains limited which drives down home sales. That in turn drives up demand for those limited homes to choose from, which leads to higher home prices,” said Casey Menish of Pearson Smith Realty and an NVAR board member. “I am optimistic that as mortgage rates fall, we will see more people ready to sell their homes, and more buyers ready to pick up their home searches where they left them.”
The months’ supply of inventory in November was 1.05, up just slightly (0.3%) from November 2022 but down from October’s 1.23 months. The average days on the market in November was 20, down significantly (23.1%) from the prior year but a little higher than October’s 17 days.
Homebuyers continued to have few options and that meant higher prices. The median sold price for a home in November was $656,500. That’s up almost 22% from the pre-pandemic November 2019 median sold price of $538,250.
NVAR’s newly released 2024 economic housing forecast, produced in conjunction with George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis, indicated that the residential and commercial real estate markets have not yet reached a post-pandemic normal. The forecast reported a possible downturn despite the economy attracting regional workers and creating jobs. As such, overall sales activity is expected to decline in 2024.
Another COVID outcome cited in the forecast is an increase in intraregional migration patterns — especially to distant suburbs — spurred by more work-from-home options.
“We expect home values to continue to increase due to historic low housing inventories across the region,” said Ryan McLaughlin, CEO of NVAR. “But we remain hopeful that recent spikes in mortgage rates will moderate and stabilize and help create ownership opportunities.”
The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors data include home sales in Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton. Here are highlights from the November report:
- Closed sales: 1,054, down 9.8% from November 2022 and also down from November 2019’s 1,430 closed sales.
- Average sold price: $780,193, up 9.2% from November 2022.
- Active listings: 1,407, down 23.9% from November 2022.
- Pending sales: 996, down 19% from November 2022.
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