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Wednesday Morning Notes

by Dave Emke — October 11, 2017 at 9:00 am 23 Comments

Biden To Be in Reston on Saturday — The former Vice President will host a roundtable discussion on workforce development Saturday in Reston along with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam. The event, to be held at Reston Town Center co-working space Refraction (11911 Freedom Drive), will highlight Northam’s jobs plan. [NBC Washington]

Police Help Young Drivers — Officers help teenage drivers learn how to handle themselves on the roadway and what to do in certain situations during the “Youthful Driver Program” every Saturday at the Fairfax County Criminal Justice Academy. [Fairfax County Police Department]

Vienna, Herndon Among Top 5 Virginia Towns in Survey — A website for business professionals ranked incorporated cities and towns in Virginia based on factors including poverty level, unemployment rate and median household income. It names Vienna the “Most Successful” in the state, with Herndon coming in at No. 5. [Zippia]

County’s Fall Book Festival Kicks Off — The county’s library system is offering residents the opportunity to meet numerous authors today through Saturday as part of the “Fall for the Book” festival. [Fairfax County Public Library]

Community Center To Host Cabaret Singer — Beverly Cosham will perform Thursday afternoon at Reston Community Center’s CenterStage (2310 Colts Neck Road). [Reston Community Center]

  • Greendayer

    Sounds like a good travel weekend. Won’t be missing anything except the South Lakes football game.

  • Mike M

    So, Northam wants Biden to weigh in on his behalf? Is that good for him?

    I love the code words “workforce development.” It’s more indication that Dems see the government as the central savior of the economy and society in general. What it really means is:
    1) More immigration:
    a) the driver behind suppressed wages in the US despite higher employment
    b) more manipulable votes for the Dems
    2) More subsidized housing programs in an area where everyone else already pays a fortune for their own house, and:
    a) they get to pay for one that won’t be maintained on their own block
    b) the value of their house is suppressed because of the subsidized unit
    c) they experience more crime and nuisance
    i) abused and unrestrained pitbulls
    ii) undisciplined teen-aged males
    d) their homeowners costs go up
    e) more police calls to the neighborhood

    Say no to the realities of cynical, self-interested Democratic culture wars. Don’t ignore reality. Focus on real results that you probably have been ignoring.

    • Tim B

      Mike, your concerns sound serious, but I’d take a look at the data first before sounding the alarm. In a meta analysis of data from 20 cities this trulia article shows subsidized housing programs do not have a sizable effect on neighborhood home value. Here’s a link: https://www.trulia.com/blog/trends/low-income-housing/

      I’m not sure where you’re getting the information about “crime and nuisance” with pit bulls and “undisciplined teen-aged males,” but I don’t experience this reality. Do you have data that backs up this pretty bold claim that links this to immigration? We should be basing our decisions on facts and not anecdotal evidence.

      TL:DR, Those kids you called ICE on for blasting “Despacito” too loudly were probably white.

      • Mike M

        Oh! Thanks. I have my own “data set” and it wasn’t data that some possibly biased organization tortured until it “confessed.” My data set is from experience living in three neighborhoods in Reston, not nationwide. In one neighborhood I was the HOA President. In that neighborhood I noticed that the worst maintained units were those owned by people who rented them to County programs. I also noticed that all the police calls to our neighborhood were about something connected to one of those units, Incidents included a stabbing, a gun shot, drug dealing, and “domestic abuse” that spilled out into the common area.

        In another neighborhood, we had auto tampering, theft, and two abused pit bulls that roamed freely until they tore up another dog. In both cases when people moved they cited the subsidized units as a primary reason. When I move I will certainly try to detect the presence of subsidized units and not buy nearby. So, in accordance with the laws of economics, any forces that accelerate selling and inhibit buying will push prices down. These are all facts not confessions from tortured data sets.

        By the way, I have observed that within the same community neighborhoods with no subsidized housing actually get a boost in demand and therefore in price in those particular neighborhoods. This may offset the local downer of subsidized housing. This might just be the Fairfax or Reston case. Of course other factors play in. Many things can explains Trulia’s conclusion including San Francisco political bias.

        Then there are other questions. For how many houses should the rest of us pay? Who makes the very political and economic decision of what neighborhoods will be burdened with the How many can the County afford? Should the County really be in that business?

        “Those kids” I “called ICE on . . .”
        No idea about what you write. I have never called ICE on anyone. Why would I?

        • Tim B

          Mike, while I respect the fact that you have had negative personal experiences regarding subsidized housing, the generalizations you’re making from your own isolated instances warrant better data. Is it possible that you just had a few bad tenants in your neighborhoods and these anecdotal accounts don’t give the whole picture?

          I have also personally worked with families who were only able to purchase a home becuase of programs like the ADU. This started them on the path to earning equity and the long term financial security that comes with owning a home.

          If you have data from a source other than your own personal experience, I’m open to being convinced. Are there linkages to subsidized housing and crime established by records from Fairfax County police? Are there local data that exist that could be analyzed using HUD’s methodology to show Fairfax County is unique in its relationship to home valuation and proximity to subsidized housing?

          • Scott

            I don’t know Mike M. but I have seen similar things in Reston, as well as Arlington. There is no question that excess subsidized housing bring down property values.

          • Mike M

            Here is the deal with “data.” I know because I used to do studies and analysis for paying customers. You can get anything out of a data set that you want to get. These days data and the studies on them are like the news. There is not unbiased source. Witness the monthly widely reported studies that alternatively say coffee is going to kill you, or save your life! There are endless studies and data available. I think I made that clear. The phrase I used was from an expert who looked at business data an correlations to stock prices. These days when what I have experienced is perpendicular to what studies say, then I question the studies. Subsidized housing is a political issue. I have seen nothing that says it gets positive results that outweigh the costs. And frankly, I pay enough in taxes and housing. I don’t want to pay for the trouble I have seen. I have already explained how the results above could be derived despite the truths I have observed. I will also tell you the author of the study cited was educated at Berkeley and employed by numerous Liberal establishments with Socialist agenda.

          • Why do you bother?

            Translation: “Don’t confuse me with the facts.”

          • Mike M

            You have been duped into believing biased studies that contradict what you see with your own eyes. That puts the buyers and creators of the studies in charge of your perception of reality. As I said, when the studies conflict so completely with my objective observations, I question the studies. I have also explained how that one study cited has inherent biases and could be affected by many factors external to the issue of subsidized housing. I won’t confuse you with logic. Eat what they feed you. Pay no attention to the man you see behind the curtain.

          • Why do you bother?

            Mike, Mike, Mike. Your tiny subsample of the universe of things is so far from statistically significant as to be non-existent.

            Do you even science?

          • Mike M

            WDYB, WDYB, WDYB. Science has been hi-jacked and I have already pointed out flaws in those studies. I have actually read many studies on the topic because of my experiences and I find most critically flawed. Also, I stand by my many other points above. As for the “science,” consider the following:

            Most of the studies conclude that high concentrations of subsidized housing do damage property values in the area. About lower densities of subsidy hey state things like this: “Caused a decline of only 3%,” or they conclude values increased. But they don’t look at what might have happened to value increases without the subsidized units, because that is hard to “science.” Here is another issue they miss altogether. The whole point of Fairfax’s sneaking of individual units into clusters of non-subsidized housing is to spread out the burden. So it become’s harder to measure. Also, as I have stated, it makes values in neighborhoods without subsidized housing in the same precinct rise faster. This can appear to offset the declines absorbed by the immediate neighbors of the subsidized units.

          • Why do you bother?
          • Mike M

            Yeah! Because, . . . science.
            I critiqued the “scientific” studies for you. By the way none of these “studies” were double blind and peer review tested. So, not really science. Oh, and see what Scott said.

          • Scott

            FTR, social science like this has little in common with the scientific method, or actual standards. Almost no social science study is able to reproduce same/similar results when tried again.

      • Chuck Morningwood

        I do. it’s called RIBS 5. Try riding it during the afternoon rush hour.

  • Scott

    Oh geez…That Biden event will be a mess, what with all the protestors upset at HUGE democrat donor/bundler/supporter Harvey Weinstein’s treatment of women….oh wait, I forgot we are talking about bad-behaving Democrats. Never mind.

    • Adrian Havill

      Donald Trump, Bill O’Reilly, Roger Ailes, Ed Henry, Eric Bolling, Tim Murphy, Mark Foley, Rush Limbaugh, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Mark Sanford, Larry Craig, John Ensign, David Vitter, Jack Ryan, Rudy Giuliani, Bob Livingston, Dan Crane, Dennis Hastert–just a few though some of these Republicans liked men more than women.

      • Scott

        As usual adrian, you don’t get it.

    • Sally Misencik

      Scott, please tell us what you like about various Re[publicans…name them and then state, please, what it is you think they are correct in their platforms, and if you are a fan (or voter) of Trump, please tell us what you admire and appreciate in his presidency. Perhaps all of us would have a genuine learning opportunity.

      • Scott

        What does your question have to do with my post? Let me help you. Nothing.

  • 40yearsinreston

    Plum and Hudgins will be there kissing up

  • RoadApples

    re: Former VP Biden’s workforce development plan. If I may use Jack Kerouac’s quote ” one day I will find the right words, and they will be simple” to define Biden’s sophomoric gameplan: Federal Government (tax supported) subsidies.

  • Mike M

    Some facts.
    1) We have a record number of foreign born people in the US.
    2) They generally will work for less.
    3) I get into many businesses in the DC area. I can see how South and East Asians, and East Europeans have been inundating office work (HR, finance, administration in general). It is outdated to think it’s just farm workers and lifeguards. I see it with my own eyes. One local firm I know well has gone from being largely white and black to being more than 50% immigrant in the space of a year. Interestingly, African-Americans have almost disappeared from this firm.

    No need to politicize this aspect of the issue. BOTH parties support this intentional trend. As I said, it is good for shareholders. Not for American-born workers. It’s very bad for them. Especially bad for segments of the African-American population which had been making gains. There is nothing surprising about this. If the labor market gets increasingly free, wages will go down toward the international average. This is simple international economics. We need to stall immigration.

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