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Reston to Nearly Double in Size Over Next Quarter-Century

by Vernon Miles November 27, 2018 at 2:15 pm 24 Comments

(Updated at 10:05 a.m.) Don’t expect Reston’s recent population boom to slow anytime soon.

Fairfax County’s Demographic Reports 2018 project high levels of residential growth throughout Reston over the next 27 years and the Hunter Mill District leads the county in new housing in development to match.

Reston, divided across the 20190, 20191, and 20194 zip codes, currently has a total population of 64,546 people. By 2045, the population is anticipated to reach 103,989.

To the south, 20191 is projected to increase to a population of 30,512 by 2020 and 31,995 by 2025. The 20190 zip code north of the Toll Road is also expected to grow and, by 2045, will start to close the population gap with its southern neighbor. Much of the growth in Reston’s core is likely spurred by plans to continue expansion on the Silver Line.

Further to the north though, the more suburban 20194 area code shows very little growth.

The demographics report also breaks down the type of housing throughout Reston. The 20191 area code south of the Toll Road leads in single family homes and townhomes, with 3,694 and 4,225 respectively. However, Reston north of the Toll Road contains most of the area’s multifamily housing, with 7,701 multifamily apartment units. Both sides of the road are expected to continue adding housing at about the same rate for the foreseeable future.

To deal with the increasing development, Hunter Mill also leads the county in housing development. Of the 4,354 housing projects in the county currently under construction, 3,052 are in Hunter Mill.

The Hunter Mill District overall is among the County’s most affluent areas. Income in Hunter Mill is more concentrated at the higher end than income range than the Fairfax average. The unemployment rate in Hunter Mill is approximately half a percent lower in Reston than in the rest of Fairfax County.

The cost of living is also higher in the Hunter Mill District. The median market value of an owned home throughout Fairfax County is $519,560. In Hunter Mill, it’s $584,094. Average housing rent in the County is $1,789. In Hunter Mill, it’s $1,907.

Hunter Mill also has higher levels of education than the Fairfax County average, with 73.9 percent of men and 67.4 percent of women having a bachelor’s degree or higher, as compared to the countywide average of 62.9 percent of men and 57.8 percent of women with college degrees.

Photo courtesy Lauren Pinkston
Chart via Demographics Report 2018

This story has been updated

  • 30yearsinreston

    All those free houses soon add up
    Thank god that Hudgins had the leadership qualties to provide new bike lines for all the new residents

    • Del Mueller

      I have yet to see one person on a red rental bike from one of the stands around RTC. No helmets, lets call it “kamikaze biking” where you rent a bike and drive among the vehicles. Simply comical. Somebody made some coin on this venture. Maybe you install those bike stations after the RTC metro station is completed and there is public interest(demand) for that service.

      • Greg

        The rude and arrogant bikers who post here will often wrongly comment that the bikes are funded by a private company. While it’s true that Capital Bikeshare is private, its expansion in Fairfax County (and in all other locations it operates as well) has been taxpayer funded with now in excess of $1 million of our tax dollars.

        What’s more, the county further subsidizes the private company with 50% discounts on memberships.

        And, of course, the county encourages and enables unlawful behavior by not providing headgear.

        https://www.insidenova.com/news/fairfax/fairfax-supervisors-ok-funding-for-merrifield-bike-sharing-initiative/article_130ab2d2-0064-11e8-a25d-c71706107717.html

        https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/transportation/bike/capital-bikeshare-offer

        • Del Mueller

          We are on the same page. And that is why I voted “no” on the meals tax. Giving these guys more money to spend is foolish. I see full size connector buses driving around Reston at all hours with one or no passengers. They could use 12 person vans and be more efficient. Efficiency is not the goal.

        • 40yearseverywhere

          And the rude and arrogant whiners will come here and complain with the same childish anti-bike comments. Your posts are worn out and predictable.

          • Greg

            Lisa, is that you? Childish masquerading again?

            Show us the bikers riding the highly subsidized bikes and you may have standing.

            Del is right; the Capital Bikeshare patrons don’t exist in Reston.

      • Mike M

        For some reason my reply was suppressed. Here we go again, . . .

        The bikeshare “service” we have is already obsolete. But because the County is subsidizing the free enterprise (is there ANYTHING they don’t get into?), we will see the newer business models more slowly than elsewhere.

        To your point, I agree it is lunacy to encourage bikes to mingle with our automobile traffic. Sheer lunacy and people will be killed and drivers (Restonians) will have their lives ruined.

        • 40yearseverywhere

          And of course, our town whiner MikeM is here to whine about bikes.

          • Mike M

            Do you understand what I said? Do you disagree?

    • 40yearseverywhere

      Ohhhh, what a wittle cwybaby who doesn’t wike bike lanes.

  • Leila Gordon

    The 20191 zip code is south of the DTR, not north.

    • cRAzy

      As you know, it’s south.

  • Ken Fredgren

    How utterly terrible!

  • Terry Maynard

    As the link below shows, 20194 is north of Baron Cameron, 20191 is south of the DTR, and 20190 lies between.

    https://virginia.hometownlocator.com/zip-codes/zipcodes,city,reston.cfm

    20191 and 20190 border the DTR and include the TSAs, which are planned to grow by 44K dwelling units (DUs) (that’s about 92K people using county pers/DU for high-rise MF DUs). Yet the county’s forecast for population in those two areas only calls for 39.4 additional people through mid-2050s. So why does the county insist on having a Reston Master Plan that calls for a target of 92,000 people–more than double the expected growth? (Note: The RMP for the TSAs approved in 2014–vice the 2015 BOS version–called for 29K DUs or about 61K people. That would have been more than enough. See https://reston2020.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-county-needs-practice-in-telling.html for details.) Does the county expect an additional 50k-plus people to move in between 2045 and 2055 in the full plan period??

    The self-evident answer is that the county does not want a REAL plan for Reston–one that actually guides development in a rational way–that is generally consistent with its growth forecasts. It simply wants to open the door to as much residential (and commercial) development as developers could conceivably want. Residents (current and future) be damned!

    The county forecast is yet another reason why the PRC areas of Reston should retain their density at 13 persons per acre and density per parcel not to exceed 50 DU/A. When the county’s own forecast make a lie of supervisor-dictated county plans, it’s time to change the plan–and the supervisor.

    • 30yearsinreston

      I have been advocating for her repeal for several years
      I have kept the premise that her lack of empathy to her constituents as she pursues her single minded goal will turn Reston into an urban slum
      Her failure as a WMATA board member was just a precursor to the damage she is causing to her ‘welcoming home’
      The sooner she is gone the better off all us will be, hovever it may be too late to stop her continued destruction
      Reston can kiss the golf courses goodbye

    • Mike M

      In old military parlance, it’s called a free-fire zone.

    • Reston Now

      Thank you for pointing this out. The story has been updated to reflect that.

  • Chkitout1

    Too bad our Board of Supervisors didn’t include plans for infrastructure improvements. We have now transitioned from “A Place Called Reston to “A Mess Called Reston”.

  • Arielle in NoVA

    Shoving it in whether or not locals want it >:(

  • 30yearsinreston

    Reston should change its name to Hudginsville

    • Mike M

      Or Tysons West.

  • dbncoold

    Reston is ugly and it’s getting uglier.

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