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Fairfax County Projects Continued Flat School Enrollment Numbers

by Dave Emke January 30, 2017 at 11:30 am 30 Comments

South Lakes High School

Fairfax County Public Schools are still growing, but they are not seeing nearly as many new enrollees as they have in recent years.

The district’s 2018-22 Capital Improvement Program, approved last week by the board, predicts an increase in enrollment of about 3,000 students in the next five years — from its current 187,202 to a projected 190,632. In the past decade, Fairfax County had been seeing that number of new enrollees each year.

Fairfax County Public Schools enrollment projections

South Lakes High School had an enrollment of 2,483 students at the beginning of the current school year, which is more than 300 above current capacity. A renovation project at the school is expected to increase capacity to 2,700 by the end of the 2018-19 school year, while enrollment is projected to remain relatively stable through 2021-22.

Area high school enrollment projections/FCPS

Enrollment had previously been expected to soar well above the 2,700 mark; however, in the CIP, Fairfax County Public Schools report a leveling-off due to changing demographics in the area:

“As the county approaches build-out, new housing is forecast to rise numerically in units, but its composition is likely to change. Forecasts of housing in Fairfax County and City of Fairfax include larger numbers and proportions of mid- and high-rise residential developments, which have typically drawn fewer families with school-aged children.”

The school’s ongoing addition project is scheduled to cost $14.5 million. That number breaks down to $8 million in FY2018, $5.8 million in FY 2019 and $300,000 in FY2020. About $500,000 has already gone into the project.

A new high school is proposed in the district’s most recent CIP; however, it is pencilled in for the middle of the next decade (FY2023-FY2027).

From the program proposal:

“Anticipation and completion of the Silver Line Metro has already spurred higher density residential growth along that corridor. This new residential growth, along with potential changes in families residing within existing residential areas adjacent to that corridor, may, in part, result in an increase in students within FCPS schools.”

The new high school, at a cost of $120 million, would be built in the western part of the county to provide relief for existing area high schools such as South Lakes and Herndon, as well as Centreville, Chantilly, Herndon, Oakton and Westfield.

Charts via Fairfax County Public Schools

  • June Smith

    Get rid of the illegal aliens and the schools will will have more than adequate space for students who are children of American citizens.

    • MAGA

      Careful June some people can’t handle hearing that around here.

      • June Smith

        I know, this is Connolly country

    • Louise

      In this county, one’s status isn’t dependent upon that of another person. If you prefer regressive policies like that, I’ve heard the Dominican Republic has similar policies.

      • June Smith

        It most certainly is – two schools in the county, which are predominantly children of illegal aliens, have low test scores … so low that they risk losing federal funding. Illegal aliens adversely affect our public school system and and ranking

        If you don’t think one’s status is dependent upon that of another person, then you are walking through life with blinders on

        • Louise

          June–can you share with me your ability to determine the status of these chi,drew and their parents? I’d love to know how you do that! Or do you just assume that all immigrants are undocumented?

          In the United States, people born here are citizens. That’s the law.

          • June Smith

            When the parents enroll their kids – if the field where the SSN is entered is blank – the parents are illegal aliens … and their children are entitled ONLY to an education and NO other benefits and services

            If you spent more time working on the country budget and getting more involved in country planning – than rabble rousing on free forums – you would know this

          • Louise

            Wow. Which form, exactly? So you’re saying you’ve been reading these documents? How do you have access to them?

          • June Smith

            Ah – so you do know it works! And you thought no one else did!

        • Louise

          Oh also–can you tell me which two schools are in danger of receiving funding? Thanks/

          • June Smith

            I’m sure you think you know. If you don’t, go online and research like the rest of us do.

  • 30yearsinreston

    B,b,,but,but we were told we needed the meals tax to cater for increased enrolment

    • tiredmom

      Well there are 28 crammed into my kid’s first grade class — three sections for 80 kids. Our children deserve better than that. Even excellent schools can benefit from better teacher student ratios.

      • Greg

        Then get your wallet out and spend your own money. The county gets too much of ours.

        Better yet, homeschool your kid(s).

        • Louise

          It doesn’t work that way. A high quality education is an investment–and it costs money. If you prefer poorly educated kids, you may want to move to a different county.

          • Greg

            Yes, it does work that way. And it will only get better now that Ms. DeVos is running the education department.

          • Louise

            LOL. You’re not an educator, are you, Greg?

          • June Smith

            WHO is in our schools determines the quality of education … when the schools are crammed with illegal aliens and their children, they adversely affect the quality of education … no matter how much tax dollars are pumped into it.

            1/3 of the kids in the country go to private school because parents KNOW education is an investment … when they are in a school district that has been invaded by illegal aliens – they have no where else to go but private school

          • Louise

            Wow. You don’t understand education very well. Nor can you claim to know why a family chooses private school.

          • June Smith

            Since many of my neighbors enroll their kids in private school – yes, I CAN claim to know why families chose private schools over the public school system – that is failing our kids.

          • Louise

            That’s called “anecdotal” evidence.

          • June Smith

            No Louise – that’s called fact. Something you have yet to provide on this forum.

          • Louise

            LOL

          • Louise

            I haven’t made any claims I can’t prove. But you’ve made several! 🙂

          • June Smith

            You have proven nothing … all you have done is peddled nonsensical BS on this forum. You are trouble making troll .. parroting what you’ve heard from other source – because you are incapable of forming an independent thought – and have sub basic google research skills

        • June Smith

          Greg, the best way to get our schools back on track is to vote out Hudgins and get a Conservative on the Board of Supervisors – and get rid of this School Board … they are by far the most incompetent to date

          AND … don’t even vote for Gillespie – he wants to protect the rights of illegal aliens in our schools — offer more programs – which means larger classrooms.

          Corey Stewart is the man we need in the Governor’s Mansion .. he has had our backs for years – since he was on the Prince William Board of Supervisors.

  • Louise

    Awesome. So you can’t name the schools that you claim are in danger of losing funding. Got it!

    • June Smith

      Google isn’t your strong suit, huh?

      • Louise

        I’ve googled. No schools are at risk of losing funding.

        • June Smith

          Well, no one ever said you were the sharpest pencil in the box

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