Fairfax County Projects Continued Flat School Enrollment Numbers

by Dave Emke January 30, 2017 at 11:30 am 30 Comments

South Lakes High School

Fairfax County Public Schools are still growing, but they are not seeing nearly as many new enrollees as they have in recent years.

The district’s 2018-22 Capital Improvement Program, approved last week by the board, predicts an increase in enrollment of about 3,000 students in the next five years — from its current 187,202 to a projected 190,632. In the past decade, Fairfax County had been seeing that number of new enrollees each year.

Fairfax County Public Schools enrollment projections

South Lakes High School had an enrollment of 2,483 students at the beginning of the current school year, which is more than 300 above current capacity. A renovation project at the school is expected to increase capacity to 2,700 by the end of the 2018-19 school year, while enrollment is projected to remain relatively stable through 2021-22.

Area high school enrollment projections/FCPS

Enrollment had previously been expected to soar well above the 2,700 mark; however, in the CIP, Fairfax County Public Schools report a leveling-off due to changing demographics in the area:

“As the county approaches build-out, new housing is forecast to rise numerically in units, but its composition is likely to change. Forecasts of housing in Fairfax County and City of Fairfax include larger numbers and proportions of mid- and high-rise residential developments, which have typically drawn fewer families with school-aged children.”

The school’s ongoing addition project is scheduled to cost $14.5 million. That number breaks down to $8 million in FY2018, $5.8 million in FY 2019 and $300,000 in FY2020. About $500,000 has already gone into the project.

A new high school is proposed in the district’s most recent CIP; however, it is pencilled in for the middle of the next decade (FY2023-FY2027).

From the program proposal:

“Anticipation and completion of the Silver Line Metro has already spurred higher density residential growth along that corridor. This new residential growth, along with potential changes in families residing within existing residential areas adjacent to that corridor, may, in part, result in an increase in students within FCPS schools.”

The new high school, at a cost of $120 million, would be built in the western part of the county to provide relief for existing area high schools such as South Lakes and Herndon, as well as Centreville, Chantilly, Herndon, Oakton and Westfield.

Charts via Fairfax County Public Schools

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